Emil Siriwardane

Emil N.

Assistant Professor of Business
Finance Unit
Harvard Business School
Baker Library 261
Boston, MA 02163
Finance Unit
Harvard Business School
Baker Library 261
Boston, MA 02163


Download Curriculum Vitae › Link to HBS Faculty Profile ›

› Publications

Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection
(with Robert Engle)
Review of Financial Studies, February 2018
Finalist: 2014 AQR Insight Award  ›
A model of equity volatility that disentagles asset volatility and leverage.
Final Manuscript› Working Paper Version› Online Appendix› Slides› BibTeX›
Term Structure Forecasting and Scenario Generation
(with Robert Engle and Guillaume Roussellet)
Journal of Econometrics, December 2017
A statistical model of the term structure of sovereign yields tailored for long-term scenario generation and forecasting. Final Manuscript › Working Paper Version› BibTeX›
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Forthcoming, Journal of Finance
Previously Titled: Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk
2016 WFA Award for Best Paper in Asset Pricing  ›   2015 AQR Top Finance Graduate Award  ›
Negative capital shocks at CDS protection sellers lead to an increase in credit spreads. The effect is amplified by internal capital markets frictions at the financial institutions that sell protection. Institution type (e.g. hedge funds) also matters.
Paper› Online Appendix› Slides› BibTeX›

› Working Papers

A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy
(with Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam)
Previously Titled: Precautionary Savings in Stocks and Bonds
A new measure of risk appetite based on the valuation of volatile stocks explains a large fraction of real interest rate variation. Increases in risk appetite are followed by a boom in investment and output, plus a fall in unemployment.
Paper› Online Appendix› Data› BibTeX›
The Probability of Rare Disasters: Estimation and Implications
Finalist: 2013 Best PhD Thesis (Olin - WUSL)
A measure of the risk-neutral probability of a macroeconomic disaster. Increases in the probability of disaster lead to economic downturns, and exposure to disaster risk is priced in the cross-section of U.S. equities.
Paper› Slides› BibTeX›

› Works-in-Progress

Risk Reallocation in OTC Derivatives Networks
(with Andrea Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskowitz, and Sriram Rajan)
Paper Available Upon Request